1nwt1n3

dailyPulseTypeUuid

hasNodeId

highlightQueueName

nodeId

plusPageQuery

node

dailyPulseBlockQuery

queueName

highlightBlockQuery

excludeQueueName

featuredOpinionBlockQuery

articles

queue

query plusPageQuery(
  $dailyPulseTypeUuid: String!
  $highlightQueueName: String!
  $nodeId: ID!
  $hasNodeId: Boolean!
) {
  node(id: $nodeId) @include(if: $hasNodeId) {
    __typename
    ...plusHomeSeoNode
    id
  }
  ...dailyPulseBlockQuery_2qB01P
  ...highlightBlockQuery_3iQMXB
  ...featuredOpinionBlockQuery_jOY8S
}

fragment articleCommentArticle on Article {
  ...entityLink
  commentCount
  entityId
}

fragment articleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...hooksArticleSeoArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  entityId
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
  summary {
    text
  }
  subHeadline {
    text
  }
  body(customContents: [], type: PARAGRAPH) {
    text
  }
  keywords
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  topics {
    name
    entityId
    id
  }
  urlAlias
  authors {
    name
    id
  }
  images {
    style(filter: {style: "768x768"}) {
      url
    }
  }
  readingTime
}

fragment authorAvatarAuthor on Author {
  ...entityLink
  entityId
  entityUuid
  name
  image(filter: {type: AUTHOR_IMAGE}) {
    style(filter: {style: "300x300"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment authorSeoAuthor on Author {
  entityId
  bio
  name
  urlAlias
  ...hooksUseDynamicMetaTags
}

fragment blockquoteQuoteContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment contentActionBarContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  createdDate
  updatedDate
  publishedDate
  readingTime
  ...articleCommentArticle
  ...helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle
  ...helpersGetContentTypeNameContent
  ... on Article {
    hasVideoContent
  }
}

fragment contentAuthorImageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  authors {
    entityId
    ...authorAvatarAuthor
    ...entityLink
    id
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
}

fragment contentAuthorLinkContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  authors {
    entityId
    entityUuid
    name
    ...entityLink
    id
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment contentBodyContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  body(customContents: [], type: PARAGRAPH) {
    json
  }
  ...contentSchemaRenderContent
}

fragment contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  images {
    url
    title
    type
    size540x360: style(filter: {style: "540x360"}) {
      url
    }
  }
}

fragment contentHeadlineContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  socialHeadline
  ...contentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
}

fragment contentNewsletterWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
    id
  }
  sections {
    value {
      relatedNewsletters {
        ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
        id
      }
      id
    }
  }
  ... on Article {
    relatedNewsletters {
      ...helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentPublishedDateContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  publishedDate
}

fragment contentSchemaRenderContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...blockquoteQuoteContent
  ...imageContent
  ...inlineWidgetContent
  ...photoGalleryWidgetContent
  ...scmpYoutubeContent
}

fragment contentSectionsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      ...helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection
      ...entityLink
      name
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment contentShareWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  shortUrl
  socialHeadline
  headline
}

fragment contentSponsorTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment contentSummaryContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  summary {
    text
  }
}

fragment dailyPulseBlockQuery_2qB01P on Query {
  dailyPulseQuery: articles(filter: {typeIds: [$dailyPulseTypeUuid]}, first: 1, orderBy: {field: PUBLISHED_DATE, direction: DESC}) {
    edges {
      node {
        ...contentBodyContent
        ...contentHeadlineContent
        ...hooksArticleDateUtilsContent
        ...hooksPlusArticleLinkHandlerArticle
        entityId
        urlAlias
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment entityLink on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  entityId
  entityUuid
  urlAlias
  urlRedirect {
    toUrl
    id
  }
  application {
    entityId
    id
  }
  ... on Section {
    fullSectionPath {
      entityId
      id
    }
    parentSection
  }
  ...helpersAppBarVariantBase
  ...helpersApplicationBase
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment featuredOpinionBlockQuery_jOY8S on Query {
  highlightQueue: queue(filter: {name: $highlightQueueName}) {
    items(first: 6) {
      edges {
        node {
          __typename
          ... on Content {
            __isContent: __typename
            entityId
          }
          ... on Node {
            __isNode: __typename
            id
          }
        }
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersAppBarVariantBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsLiveArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersSectionContent
  ...helpersStyleSectionContent
}

fragment helpersApplicationBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesPage
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusPage
}

fragment helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...helpersCheckArticleIsInSectionsArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  ...helpersUseContentSponsorContent
}

fragment helpersCheckIfNewsSectionInFirstIndexSection on Section {
  name
}

fragment helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle on Article {
  entityId
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  disableOffPlatformContent
  sponsorType
  published
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
}

fragment helpersCheckIsLiveArticle on Article {
  flattenTypeIds
  liveArticle {
    status
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    paywallTypes {
      entityUuid
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPlusPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle on Article {
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersCheckIsPostiesPage on Page {
  urlAlias
}

fragment helpersCheckIsStyleArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  sections {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        entityId
        id
      }
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetArticleTypeNameArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersGetContentTypeNameContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    ...helpersGetArticleTypeNameArticle
  }
}

fragment helpersIsArticleVideoAsHeroArticle on Article {
  multimediaEmbed {
    json
  }
}

fragment helpersMassageToNewsletterItemNewsletter on Newsletter {
  entityId
  name
  alternativeName
  description {
    text
  }
  summary {
    text
  }
  homepageDescription {
    text
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle on Article {
  authors {
    types
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle on Article {
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersStyleSectionContent on Section {
  fullSectionPath {
    entityId
    id
  }
}

fragment helpersUseContentSponsorContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  topics {
    entityId
    sponsor {
      ...sponsorTagSponsor
      name
      type
      id
    }
    id
  }
  ... on Article {
    sponsorType
  }
  ...helpersCheckIsMainTopicContent
}

fragment highlightBlockItemContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
  ...hooksPlusArticleLinkHandlerArticle
  ...plusOpinionContentItemContent
  ...plusPrimaryContentItemContent
  ...plusSecondaryContentItemContent
}

fragment highlightBlockQuery_3iQMXB on Query {
  highlightQueue: queue(filter: {name: $highlightQueueName}) {
    items(first: 6) {
      edges {
        node {
          __typename
          ... on Content {
            __isContent: __typename
            entityId
            ...highlightBlockItemContent
          }
          ... on Node {
            __isNode: __typename
            id
          }
        }
      }
    }
    id
  }
}

fragment hooksArticleDateUtilsContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  createdDate
  publishedDate
  updatedDate
}

fragment hooksArticleSeoArticle on Article {
  ...helpersCheckIsPostiesArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsPostMagazineArticle
  ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  ...hooksContentHeadlineTagContent
  ...helpersCheckIsAmpEnabledArticle
  entityId
  headline
  socialHeadline
  types {
    value {
      entityId
      id
    }
  }
  authors {
    entityId
    id
  }
  images {
    generic_og: style(filter: {style: "og_image_scmp_generic"}) {
      url
    }
    styles(filter: {styles: ["og_image_posties_article", "og_postmag", "og_image_style", "og_image_scmp_analysis", "og_image_scmp_explainer", "og_image_scmp_editorial", "og_image_scmp_fact_check", "og_image_scmp_debate", "og_image_scmp_live", "og_image_scmp_obituary", "og_image_scmp_opinion", "og_image_scmp_review", "og_image_scmp_series", "og_image_scmp_generic"]}) {
      url
      style
    }
    type
  }
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksContentHeadlineTagContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    types {
      value {
        name
        entityId
        description {
          text
        }
        id
      }
    }
    ...helpersCheckIsStyleArticle
  }
  flag
  sections {
    value {
      name
      id
    }
  }
  ...hooksContentHelperContent
}

fragment hooksContentHelperContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersSanitizeArticleTypeEntityIdsArticle
  ...helpersSanitizeAuthorTypesArticle
  ...helpersSanitizedAuthorEntityIdsArticle
  flag
}

fragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_1w5sgM on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentActionBarContent
  ...contentCoverImageContent_3ndUvy
  ...contentHeadlineContent
  ...contentSummaryContent
  ...contentSponsorTagContent
  ... on Video {
    __typename
  }
  ... on Gallery {
    __typename
  }
}

fragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2eF4Y0 on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentActionBarContent
  ...contentHeadlineContent
  ...contentPublishedDateContent
  ...contentSectionsContent
  ...contentSummaryContent
  ...contentSponsorTagContent
  ... on Video {
    __typename
  }
  ... on Gallery {
    __typename
  }
}

fragment hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3nHfEg on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentActionBarContent
  ...contentAuthorImageContent
  ...contentAuthorLinkContent
  ...contentHeadlineContent
  ...contentSectionsContent
  ...contentSummaryContent
  ...contentSponsorTagContent
  ... on Video {
    __typename
  }
  ... on Gallery {
    __typename
  }
}

fragment hooksPlusArticleLinkHandlerArticle on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersCheckCanShowInPlusPlatformContent
  id
  entityId
  urlAlias
}

fragment hooksUseDeepLinkTagsBase on BaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias {
  __isBaseWithApplicationAndUrlAlias: __typename
  __typename
  urlAlias
  entityId
}

fragment hooksUseDynamicMetaTags on DynamicMetaTags {
  __isDynamicMetaTags: __typename
  metatags {
    key
    value
  }
}

fragment imageContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  headline
  ...checkersCheckContentContainsStarlingImageContent
}

fragment inlineWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...contentNewsletterWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryDialogContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...contentShareWidgetContent
}

fragment photoGalleryWidgetContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...photoGalleryDialogContent
}

fragment plusArticleTypeTitleContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  ...helpersGetArticleTypeArticle
}

fragment plusHomeSeoNode on Node {
  __isNode: __typename
  __typename
  ... on Article {
    ...articleSeoArticle
  }
  ... on Topic {
    ...topicSeoTopic
  }
  ... on Author {
    ...authorSeoAuthor
  }
}

fragment plusOpinionContentItemContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...entityLink
  authors {
    __typename
    id
  }
  ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_3nHfEg
}

fragment plusPrimaryContentItemContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...entityLink
  ...plusArticleTypeTitleContent
  ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_1w5sgM
}

fragment plusSecondaryContentItemContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  __typename
  ...entityLink
  ...plusArticleTypeTitleContent
  ...helpersCheckIsPlusArticle
  ...hooksContentItemProvidersContent_2eF4Y0
}

fragment scmpYoutubeContent on Content {
  __isContent: __typename
  entityId
  urlAlias
  publishedDate
}

fragment sponsorTagSponsor on Sponsor {
  name
  type
  images {
    url
  }
}

fragment topicSeoTopic on Topic {
  name
  description {
    text
  }
  entityId
  urlAlias
  metaDescription
  image(type: OG) {
    url
  }
  ...hooksUseDeepLinkTagsBase
  ...hooksUseDynamicMetaTags
}


filter

first

orderBy

edges

items

US tests red lines with China with sanctions, Hegseth visit to region, tariff plans

China makes a big bet on humanoid robots

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China’s changing energy mix (updated)

China’s total installed wind and solar capacity surpassed the 2030 target of 1,200 gigawatts last year, our updated ‘energy mix’ FactSheet shows.


Power players in US-China relations

Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump lead teams that are shaping the contours of the world’s most consequential relationship .We explore the who’s who of officials and some recent exchanges between the two sides.


US sanctions Hong Kong police chief, 5 others, for ‘freedoms’ abuse

Raymond Siu Chak-yee, who retires on Tuesday, is among officials alleged to undercut Hongkongers’ rights or commit transnational repression.


US agency reports to lay out justification for Trump’s reciprocal tariffs

On Tuesday, ahead of ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement, numerous departments are to release reviews supporting US president’s strategy.


China’s factory activity speeds up on export boost, Caixin PMI shows

But China’s macroeconomic policies must be ‘more proactive and decisive’, with immediate implementations, to support a recovery, economist says.


Jacques van Wersch

Going by GDP forecasts from provincial and municipal governments, China looks set to target economic growth of at least 5 per cent in 2025.
The national GDP growth target was determined at the central economic work conference in December but won’t be revealed until lawmakers meet for the annual “two sessions” in early March, with Premier Li Qiang likely to announce the figure during his government work report.
Local governments are announcing their economic growth targets in their work reports as part of legislative sessions this month, with most so far floating figures at or north of the 5 per cent mark.
Following are more details on the state of play for China’s GDP and the latest targets for high-profile local governments:

The National Bureau of Statistics will release GDP data for 2024 on Friday. Li Qiang set a target of “around 5 per cent” back in March. The third-quarter rate came in at a disappointing 4.6 per cent, taking year-to-date growth to 4.8 per cent. A poll of economist estimates compiled by Chinese data provider Wind put full-year growth at 4.9 per cent, which would be down from 5.2 per cent in 2023.


Guangdong province set its 2025 target around 5 per cent, the same level it targeted for 2024. It’s an ambitious target given that it only achieved 3.4 per cent in the first nine months of the year.


Shanghai, too, set its target for around 5 per cent, unchanged from last year’s projection. Growth stood at 4.7 per cent at the end of September.


Beijing set its target for 2025 to around 5 per cent from (the same goal it set for this year). It achieved 5.1 per cent growth in the first nine months and recently projected full-year growth of 5.2 per cent.


Tianjin raised its target to around 5 per cent from the goal it set last February of around 4.5 per cent. It achieved 4.7 per cent GDP growth in the first nine months last year and recently projected it would reach around that level in the full year.


Zhejiang and Fujian provinces enjoyed some of the higher local growth rates in China as of September, at 5.4 and 5.5 per cent, respectively. They forecast growth rates of around 5.5 per cent and 5.0-5.5 per cent, respectively for 2025. They had aimed for growth of around 5.5 per cent for 2024.


Average growth among the country’s 31 province-level regions was 4.69 per cent after three quarters in 2024, compared with an average target of 5.65 per cent (to do the calculation, we removed qualifiers like “around” and “above” from the targets). For reference, average 2023 GDP growth among the regions was 5.54 per cent compared with the announced national figure for that year of 5.2 per cent.



How others reported it

Set for growth: Next year is bound to be a challenging one for the economy, as the incoming Trump administration threatens to impose additional tariffs on China. To offset the weakness in the external environment, China needs to strengthen its domestic demand. The authorities have already reoriented policy in this direction by promising to increase the fiscal deficit and implement a “moderately loose” monetary policy. Importantly, the economy’s ability to accelerate in Q4 and meet the 5 per cent growth target will go a long way in reinforcing consumer and investor confidence and set the stage for more robust domestic spending. (Yicai Global)


Us vs US: [China’s third-quarter GDP performance and likely achievement of its target] already makes it clear that this growth figure will be far higher than that of the United States – the US year-on-year growth rate in the third quarter was 2.7 per cent and the IMF’s estimate for US full year growth, based on the first three quarters, is 2.8 per cent. The much faster growth in China than in the United States during 2024 makes clear the absurdity, and the purely propaganda character, of the claims in the US media that China’s economy was in crisis while the US economy was experiencing great success. On the contrary, China’s economy was continuing to grow far more rapidly than the US economy in 2024. (China Daily)


Shifting goals: Omitted from the positive economic commentary of [President Xi Jinping’s] address is the reality that China’s economic growth has slowed, falling from 5.2 per cent in 2023 … It is perhaps difficult to understand why Xi and the CCP admitted to economic challenges [a year earlier] when China’s growth rate was higher and celebrated economic success when growth had slowed. But it makes sense when considered through the lens of “goal-shifting” … If we take China’s 2024 GDP growth of 4.9 per cent as the outcome, it can be viewed unfavourably in comparison with China’s 5.2 per cent growth in 2023. However, by shifting the goal to China having higher GDP growth than other developed economies – a feat that was never truly in doubt – China’s 2024 growth rate can be framed as “remarkable” in Chinese media. (The Conversation)


Innovation winners: “Some provinces and cities achieved results exceeding expectations in 2024, laying a solid foundation for national economic growth,” Cong Yi, a professor at the Tianjin School of Administration, told the Global Times on Tuesday. These regions share several key characteristics in their outperformance, such as significant progress in industrial restructuring and upgrading. They have sought to shift from an element-driven approach to an innovation-driven model, fostering new quality productive forces tailored to local conditions. (Global Times)


Mixed signals: Mr. Xi’s confirmation [during his New Year’s address] of China’s 5 per cent target for gross domestic product, a measure of economic activity, raised questions about the validity of those figures. “China’s 2024 claim that GDP growth was on track to meet high targets was impossible to reconcile with increasingly frantic efforts to prop up a flagging economy all year long,” the Rhodium Group, a consulting firm, wrote in a report on Tuesday. The increasingly bold measures from the government, such as loosening its monetary policy for the first time in 14 years, does not square, Rhodium argued, with the moderate growth that the 5 per cent target would indicate. (The New York Times)


Struggling engine: [A] survey of economists by AFP warned [that growth] could ease to just 4.4 per cent this year and even drop below four per cent in 2026. The 2024 reading would be just shy of Beijing’s target of “around 5 per cent” – reiterated by President Xi Jinping late last year – and likely “close enough for officials to claim success”, Harry Murphy Cruise from Moody’s Analytics told AFP. “But do not let that achievement fool you. Under the hood, the economy’s engine is struggling to get into gear,” he warned. However, Francois Chimits from the Mercator Institute for China Studies said the figure should be regarded with some scepticism as it is “often subject to strategic adjustments to reflect internal objectives”. (Agence-France Presse)


Reforms offer hope: Bert Hofman … at the National University of Singapore, wrote earlier this month that the Chinese economy’s lacklustre post-Covid performance had exposed weaknesses built since the last substantial revamp of the fiscal system in 1994. However, he noted some “hopeful signals” that reforms were in the pipeline, following policymakers’ statements in the second half of 2024 that pointed to improving income distribution and social security. “Fiscal reforms are now clearly tied to the Chinese Communist party’s core goal of ‘high-quality growth’, and the leadership recognises that reforms should result in a fiscal system that can deliver on efficiency, equity, and stability,” Hofman wrote in a 2025 forecast for Asia Society. “A key question is whether the reforms will go far enough to turn fiscal policy into a powerful tool for resource allocation, economic stability, and income distribution.” (Financial Times)

The SCMP takeaway
For anyone watching China’s economy, GDP growth and the GDP growth target are among the most anticipated figures of the year. For many, it is also a source of much scepticism and distrust.
The Rhodium Group falls squarely in the sceptic column. The US-based economic and policy research firm was widely cited last year for its estimate of actual GDP growth in China of around 1.5 per cent in 2023 and a forecast of a 3.0-3.5 per cent “recovery” for 2024.
Rhodium put actual 2024 growth around 2.4-2.8 per cent in its end-of-year report and outlook, forecasting 3.0-4.5 per cent for 2025 “if it stimulates domestic demand with some urgency and ramps up debt … reaching the high end of that range only if everything falls in Beijing’s favour”.
Taking Beijing’s numbers at face value, the strong throughline on economic planning over the past several months is that leaders are very concerned about making the approximate growth target and setting the stage for sustained growth.
Most observers agree that the steps the government is taking ought to move the needle in the right direction, but the headwinds aren’t insignificant. Without mentioning the unpredictable effect of the US’ incoming president, there are a few predictable challenges of note:
First, it’s unlikely that the property market will stabilise for a few years, at least – and when it does, it is unlikely to ever regain the overweight representation as a proportion of GDP that it maintained for the first two decades of this century. While prices, at least in big cities, show tentative though fragile signs of stabilising, property investment declined by 10 per cent in the first 11 months of 2024 and has been on the decline since April 2022.
Second, consumer prices have remained stubbornly close to deflation territory, with the CPI having remained between 1 per cent and minus 1 per cent since February 2023. Retail sales growth has been below 5 per cent since last March, despite the government’s launch of a trade-in programme that is intended to boost domestic consumption.
Third, foreign direct investment has been in the doldrums. It fell 13.7 per cent in 2023 and by a further 27.9 per cent in the first 11 months of 2024, despite efforts by Beijing to roll out the red carpet for foreign businesses and address some of their concerns about doing business in China, such as easing data transfer requirements.
Beijing’s efforts to offset the drags on the economy include promoting a mindset of launching “new quality productive forces”. This is basically a call to businesses to innovate and pioneer new sectors that China can become a leader in. The incumbents in this area are clean energy products like solar panels, lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles.
While Chinese businesses have shown that they can innovate in these areas, with government support, the hitch is that they also have a tendency to flock to the shiny new thing, which ends up putting many businesses in peril when prices fall and profits move into negative territory, a problem that China’s photovoltaic sector is facing now.
Once it became clear – around July or August – that business-as-usual with just a few tweaks looked like it would mean missing economic targets, Beijing’s leaders started taking bigger swings, which culminated in explicit promises to loosen monetary policy, increase the fiscal deficit to 4 per cent from 3 per cent and to expand the trade-in programme.
If there is any optimism among China watchers on the economy, it is thanks to these relatively recently announced plans. The only questions are whether Beijing goes far enough to spend its way out of the challenges and rebalance its economy to ensure continued growth of around 5 per cent. Stay tuned for the two sessions, when more (certainly not all) will be revealed.


Province-level GDP growth targets point to at least 5 per cent growth for China

Local governments in Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang and elsewhere are projecting growth of at least 5 per cent in 2025, though some are moderating targets after a challenging first few quarters of 2024


Local governments in Beijing, Tianjin, Zhejiang and elsewhere are projecting growth of at least 5 per cent in 2025, though some are moderating targets after a challenging first few quarters of 2024.


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